We are still early. That’s important to keep in mind.
For the past few weeks (I’m writing this in mid-May), the Top Shot market has been slowly bleeding out.
They keep minting new moments and now suddenly packs are -EV (expected value, meaning you can actually lose money from a pack). In the past, packs always netted you profit. Now? Not so much.
The landscape is being actively changed by Dapper Labs. They have to do it to ensure the long-term success of NBA Top Shot.
However, it’s frustrating for those of us who have been obsessed with Top Shot for months now. Our moments are losing value and there doesn’t seem like there’s much we can do it about it.
So, back to how I started this post: But we are still early.
Are you still bullish? If yes, then we have to remember our initial strategies and get back to basics.
I’m writing this for me as much as I am for you. Here is my strategy for the rest of 2021 when it comes to NBA Top Shot:
Series 1
Let’s say Top Shot exists for the foreseeable future. 5 years, 10 years, 20 years from now, what will people see as the most collectible?
I believe it will be the things that came first.
Series 1 moments offer everything. They are unique as they were some of the first NBA moments put on the blockchain. Also, a lot of the moments occurred during the NBA Bubble. That’s history.
Not only that, but Series 1 offer scarcity. There are only a few thousand of each moment. If Top Shot indeed will exist for years to come, you can only imagine how many moments are going to saturate the market.
Series 1 will offer scarcity and history, which for me makes them one of the best long-term investments. I still see them being important, so as the market dips in 2021, I will buy deals on Series 1 as I see them.
Top Shot First Moment Badges
OK, Top Shot is still around years from now. What else is important?
In traditional card, book, and record collecting “first-editions” are always more sought after.
While Top Shot doesn’t have a traditional first edition, they do have a badge that indicates a player’s first moment.
Granted the first moments for “scrubs” won’t matter much in a couple of years, but the players who are good? Their first moment on Top Shot is as good as gold.
They undervalued right now as compared to the rest of the market. That’s because percentage-wise, there are a lot more First Moments than there will be in just a few years.
Scoop them while you still can.
Cheap Moments To Exchange For Tickets
In early May, Top Shot announced that they would allow users to cash in moments for “tickets” that could then be used to purchase special pack drops.
Then, they rolled out collector score, which meant the more moments you have, the better off you will be.
In tandem, these announcements only said one thing to me – buy as many $1-$2 moments that you can. It’s a win-win. You will either raise your collector score, or you can simply swap in those moments for tickets at a price that’s less than what it would cost you to get them in a pack.
The best part of tickets? The exclusive packs you will be able to swap them for? Unreleased Series 1 moments. See back to my first point about Series 1 above.
Players I Love
It’s obvious, but as I spoke about in my post on the best long-term holds, I want to be able to look at my collection and LOVE what I’m seeing.
For me, this means owning a lot of Westbrook moments, for you it’s going to be someone different, I’d imagine.
Whatever way you cut it, when the market is being volatile, it helps to have a collection instead of a portfolio with a bunch of speculation.
Players I Like
Speaking of speculation, to keep things fun and interesting, I’d pick up some moments of players you just like too.
As in life, you never know what is going to happen.
Instead of speculating on random players that you heard might be in the next challenge, why not trying just throwing some money at players you are cool with?
That way, if they are in a challenge or their value goes up, you can sell it for a profit. And if all goes wrong, well, at worst you’re stuck with a moment of a player you kind of like.
It could be a lot worse given the market’s current conditions!