If you’re confident that Top Shot is sticking around, then you are long on it. You shouldn’t be thinking about turning an immediate profit on moments, but instead, you should be buying moments that you think will go up steadily with time.
It sounds like you are like me.
While I’m atrocious at Top Shot, I do know that as a collector certain moments will naturally rise to the top as the ecosystem plays out. In my opinion, these are the best moments to buy on NBA Top Shot in the long term:
#1 – Lebron James Moments
I have been a collector for most of my life. When I was a kid, I bought a lot of Michael Jordan cards because he was ubiquitous at the time. Decades later? The Jumpman is as relevant as ever.
It’s, of course, a lot of the conversations people still have about Jordan. “Is he the GOAT?” It’s also the nostalgia. He will be for many their first and always their favorite basketball player.
In this generation? There’s a very good chance that person will be Lebron. He’s already in the conversation for one of the best to ever play the game. Hell, he’s going to take a page out of the Michael Jordan playbook and be in a new Space Jam.
You will notice already that Lebron is always one of the most expensive moments on Top Shot. That is because the sharps are already aware that owning a Lebron is like owning Apple stock, in that it’s bound to appreciate in value despite its high entry point. Lebron moments are likely to hold their value better than the other 99% of moments combined.
#2 – Series 1 Moments
Similar to Lebron’s moments, Series 1 will hold its value a little better than anything else in the market.
Why? Scarcity.
Not only will Series 1 hold “historical” value as they are some of the first minted moments of all time, but they were also done in a time of limited supply.
Therefore, their mint circulation is in the 2000 to 3000 ranges instead of Series 2 which is current at 35000 and climbing.
They are “rare” without being marked as such in Top Shot. The commons in Series 1 offer good long-term gains if you are able to snatch up the right players who will be in the NBA for a long time and have some kind of fan base.
#3 – Low Serial Numbers
When you’re searching with the current view on NBA Top Shot, price and then low serial numbers is the default.
If 5 of the same moment are being sold for $20, the one with the lowest serial number will show first.
Single-digit serial numbers are the rarest and most coveted of all, with #1 typically going at an extremely high premium. Think about it, it’s the best serial number to have of anything really!
If price is an issue for you, a good rule of thumb is to try and snag a serial that is one placeholder less than the minted circulation account. That is, if there were /35000 of a particular moment minted, try to grab a 4-digit serial number of that moment. It will show up first should you decide to sell it again, and others will be more likely to purchase it over another moment that is at the tail-end of the serial numbers.
#4 – Rookie Moments
A little higher risk, rookie moments can be held for a high ROI.
Granted, the player needs to BLOW UP. For every good rookie, there is typically another 50 or so who aren’t as good. Even high pedigree, lottery picks can flame out in the NBA and send their moment value into a tailspin.
If you think you have a good eye for rookies who will contribute and have positive impacts in a few years, by all means, snag their rookie moments.
For collectors, rookies are always the cool thing to have. Don’t believe me? Go check out what a physical Lebron rookie card costs on eBay these days. Then, go type in the most random NBA player you can think of and add “rookie” to the end of the queue. I bet you both are going for more than you thought they would.
With rookies, it’s about choosing the right ones, but if they hit, you can really land yourself a big profit.
#5 – Moments You Like
My favorite current player is Russell Westbrook. He’s inching in on Gary Payton to be my favorite of all time. I like everything that Westbrook stands for and does on a basketball court. I even like him off the basketball court, who am I kidding?
When I’m buying moments, I’m always doing it through the lens of a collector. And you can’t go wrong in swooping up your favorite player and essentially “betting” on them.
There is an S1 Moment when Russ was on the Rockets. He crosses up a guy and then jams it home in classic Westbrook fashion. At the end of the moment, he screams. If you know his game, you can envision what this moment looks like without even having to see it.
In my eyes, it’s a classic; for me, that moment can’t be overpriced because it holds sentimental value on top of everything else.
There is probably someone out there who likes Westbrook and that moment as much as I do. It doesn’t matter who your favorite player is, there is definitely someone who shares an affinity for their game like you do. That’s what’s creating the market for all these players on Top Shot!
Therefore, it’s in your best interest when participating in something as volatile in Top Shot that you get some pleasure out of it. And by collecting your favorite players’ or teams’ special moments, you will maximize the enjoyment you get from owning them.
At the end of the day, we’re basically just collecting videos on the internet. Why not have some fun with it? Collect what you love.
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