I’ll be honest with you.
So far, I’ve only lost money in Top Shot.
In my head, all the plays I’ve made have been sound and logical.
“SGA is a future All-Star, I will buy his S1.”
“Westbrook is a future Hall of Famer. His moments are bound to go up.”
However, I’ve gotten burned on a lot of the other “investments” I thought were solid. I guess this is how things go when you’re in a ecosystem that is so young and volatile.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve still very bullish on NBA Top Shot, but could I have done better? Absolutely! Right now, I’m not doing that great at this thing, so I want to share what I’ve messed up on so you don’t make the same mistakes I have.
Here are my biggest mistakes in Top Shot (so far).
#1 – Not Taking Profits
Don’t be afraid to take some of the top when you’re up.
When I first joined Top Shot, it was right around its first big boom. I had a Kawhi and Chris Paul each fetching $200. I had one friend who told me to sell. “But I believe in Top Shot,” I told him.
What I didn’t realize was a crash was on the horizon and I would still believe even after it. What I should have done was cashed out and reinvested my profits after. Instead, I got greedy. “This Chris Paul moment is going to $500!”
It not only would never get back to its $200 price point, but it would eventually hit a low of $20. Pretty rough.
Remember that you can’t go broke taking profits.
#2 – Speculating and Buying on Potential
You hear the buzz around a certain player. You haven’t watched any of their games, but you keep hearing about them. He’s the next big superstar in the NBA.
You decide to sit on the moment. This is going to go up and up! I’ll be rich!
Unfortunately, it’s never that easy. There are bumps in the road to any journey, and players’ moments are no different.
Collecting has a lot of speculation, but in the long-run, most of those who make the NBA and have moments on Top Shot won’t amount to much from a growth standpoint.
For every Lebron, there are 12 Andrew Wiggins – someone who has a lot of promise, but doesn’t exactly pan out to be an all-time great with a rabid fan base of collectors looking for their stuff.
Be careful on who you choose and don’t get greedy.
#3 – Buying the Rumor and Selling The News
Rookie Badges! Moments going from CC to LE! Surely, changes like these will cause prices to rise!
From what I’ve gathered so far, Top Shot seems to work counter to the ol’ adage “buy the rumor, sell the news.” When the news breaks, it tends to be to tepid response.
Rookie Badges were a great example. We knew they were coming, and there was buying frenzy as we waited in anticipation for them to be announced. Then, they were slapped on…and prices plummeted.
Another example: rumors for the Cool Cats 4 challenge was that the common moments were going to be buzzer beaters. Buy, buy, buy. Lillard and Shamat prices going up and up while the rumor buzzed.
Then the news. None of those were going to be apart of the challenge, which gave me yet another loss to add to my portfolio.
My advice now is don’t get too carried away when you hear a Top Shot rumor. The ecosystem is built to keep you on your toes, which leads me to my next mistake…
#4 – Trying to Predict Top Shot’s Next Move
You’ve heard the phrase “the house always wins”, correct? Well, in the case of Top Shot, Dapper Labs is the house, and it’s smart to remember that you’re not going to beat them.
You’ve thought about maybe buying a bot to help you in Top Shot? Now your account is banned.
You heard a rumor from some guy on Twitter that you’ll need a rare moment to get in the next pack drop? Nope, you’ll actually need two rares!
NBA Top Shot & Dapper Labs ultimately control their own ecosystem. They are a step ahead of you and you might not even realize it. Predicting who are going to the common moments required in the next challenge isn’t going to be so obvious that everyone can figure it out. They’re going to be keeping you on your toes and throwing curveballs to ensure that people aren’t gaming the system.
You may be able to get a couple wins in the short-run, but remember: the house always win. They’ll catch up to you eventually.
#5 – Listening to Everyone Else’s Advice
I’m in a private Discord channel with fellow Top Shot lovers. It’s mostly fun. We all share a common passion for collecting and a lot of times we’re merely discussing hoops.
But since we’re all Top Shot obsessives, you can imagine that there is a lot of “advice” being thrown around in there.
One guy was constantly telling us about Jamal Murray’s S1 moment was a steal. It was a steal at $300, it was a steal at $250, and now that Murray’s torn his ACL and is out for the rest of the 2021 season, it’s a steal at $150.
The story is not meant to be an indictment on the person speaking out for the Murray moment. Instead, it just shows that all the experts and people in the world, don’t know what exactly is going to happen in Top Shot.
It’s Not All Bad
It’s important that you do the research for yourself. Invest in what you know and what you love. That way, if things don’t go your way (like they clearly have for me), you aren’t disappointed. You’re just having fun out there.
The reason I keep making mistakes in Top Shot is because I’m invested in the community and I truly believe that it’s the future of collecting.
I’ve been a collector for most of my life. And through that, I’ve learned it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market. The wins will come, so long as you stay focused on building the best collection you possibly can.
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